Sensitivity of Kelani streamflow in Sri Lanka to ENSO

As part of an effort to demonstrate the use of climate predictions for water resources management, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences on stream flow in the Kelani River in Sri Lanka were investigated using correlation analysis, composite analysis and contingency tables. El Niño (warm phase of ENSO) was associated with decreased annual stream flow and La Niña (cold phase of ENSO) with increased annual flows. The annual stream flow had a negative correlation with the simultaneous ENSO index of NINO3·4 that was significant at the 95% level. This negative correlation is enhanced to a 99% level if the aggregate January to September or the April to September stream flow alone were considered. Although, there is little correlation between ENSO indices and stream flow during the October to December period, there is a high correlation between rainfall and NINO3·4 (r = 0·51, significant at the 99% level). Therefore ENSO based rainfall predictions can be used along with a hydrological model to predict the October to December stream flow. This study demonstrates the viability of using ENSO based predictors for January to September or April to September stream flow predictions in the Kelani River. The October to December stream flow may be predicted by exploiting the strong relationship between ENSO and rainfall during that period. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Deciphering heavy metal contamination zones in soils of a granitic terrain of southern India using factor analysis and GIS

Soil contamination by heavy metals has been a major concern for last few decades due to increase in urbanization and industrialization. The main objective of this research was to identify the heavy metal contaminated zones in the study area. Twenty five soil samples collected throughout the agriculture, residential and industrial areas were analysed by X-ray Fluorescence Spectrometer (XRF) for trace metals and major oxides. These metals can affect the quality of soil and infiltrate through the soil, thereby causing groundwater pollution. Based on the chemical analysis of major oxides (SiO_2, Al₂O_3, ?Fe₂O_3, MnO, MgO, CaO, Na₂O, K₂O, TiO₂, and P₂O₅) and their distribution; it is observed that these soils are predominantly siliceous type with slight enrichment of alumina component in the study area. Correlation matrix (CM) and factor analysis (FA) is employed to the heavy metal variables, viz., Ba, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, Rb, Sr, V, Y, Zn and Zr of the soil to determine the dominant factors contributing to the soil contamination in the area. In the analysis, five factors emerged as significant contributors to the soil quality. The total contribution of these five factors is about 90%. The contribution of the first factor is about 45% and has significant positive loadings of Co, Cr, Cu, Ni and Zn. The contribution of second factor is 22% and has significant positive loadings of Rb, Sr and Y. The contribution of third, fourth and fifth factors is 10, 8 and 5% and show positive loadings for lead, molybdenum and barium respectively to the soil contamination. The spatial variation maps deciphering different zones of heavy metal concentration in the soil were generated in a GIS (geographic information system) based environment using ArcGIS 9.3.1. The results reveal that heavy metal contamination in the area is mainly due to anthropogenic activities.     

Elastic properties of sands,Part 1: Micro computed tomography image analysis of grain shapes and their relationship with microstructure

Elastic properties of an unconsolidated sand are largely dependent on the elastic properties of its constituent grain and the micro-structure that defines how the grains are arranged within themselves. Coordination number, that is the average number of contacts a grain has with its neighbours, and contact surface area are the two parameters closely related to the microstructure. Moreover, grain shapes and sorting also have substantial influence on these parameters. To calculate these parameters and find any potential relationships with the shape factors, we acquire high-resolution micro computed tomography images of four mechanically compacted unconsolidated dry sand samples that are of different shape factors and sorting indices. After a comprehensive voxel-based data processing, we calculate shape factors such as sphericity and roundness of each grain in all samples. Using own algorithm, we then calculate the coordination number and contact surface area. Results show that samples of well-sorted and higher spherical and rounded grains have higher coordination number and contact surface area than the samples of poorly sorted and lower spherical and rounded grains. Among the poorly sorted samples, coordination number is largely dependent on the fraction of larger grain sizes present in the sample. Inside any given sample, grains of lower sphericity tend to have higher coordination numbers. Moreover, more spherical and rounded grains have greater contact surface area with their neighbours.     

Origin of Quartz Cement in the Paleogene Sandstone Reservoir of Shahejie Formation, Bohai Bay Basin, China

The precipitation of authigenic quartz plays a significant role to reduce the reservoir characteristics and enhance the stiffness of the rock.The Es₁ sandstone of Shahejie Formation is acting as a significant hydrocarbon producing rock in the Nanpu Sag.Various methods like thin section petrography,cathodoluminescence(CL),scanning electron microscope(SEM,with EDS),and electron microprobe analysis has been used to reveal the origin of quartz cement as well as to evaluate the effect of quartz cement on reservoir quality.The studied sandstone is classified as immature to mature feldspathic litharenite and lithic arkose and consists of quartz,feldspar,rock fragments and micas.Petrographic studies and SEM analysis shows that the authigenic quartz is acting a significant cement that reduces the reservoir quality.Whereas clay minerals(kaolinite and mixed layer illite to smectite)are dominant in the Es₁ sandstone,that can reduce the reservoir quality.SEM,CL and thin section analysis reveal that there are two stages of quartz cement in the studied samples;that are pore filling authigenic cement and quartz overgrowth cement.Fluid inclusion homogenization temperatures shows that stages of quartz cement were developed with continuous process from 70℃ to 130℃.Quartz cements were generally originated from I/S reaction,feldspar dissolution,conversion of rock fragments and pressure solution.Feldspar dissolution(K-feldspar)and kaolinite to illite reaction is an insignificant silica source for the silica cement which is internally precipitated in a close system with diffusion transporting mechanism.Overall,quartz cement significantly enhance the rock strengthen and brittleness effectively as well as it reduce the overall reservoir quality.     

Cosmological evolution of pilgrim dark energy

We study pilgrim dark energy model by taking IR cut-offs as particle and event horizons as well as conformal age of the universe. We derive evolution equations for fractional energy density and equation of state parameters for pilgrim dark energy. The phantom cosmic evolution is established in these scenarios which is well supported by the cosmological parameters such as deceleration parameter, statefinder parameters and phase space of ω _? and \(\omega'_{\vartheta}\) . We conclude that the consistent value of parameter μ is μ<0 in accordance with the current Planck and WMAP9 results.     

Statistical Relationship Between UVB(280-320nm) and Broadband Solar Radiation(295-2800nm) at a Subtropical Location(Qena,Egypt)

The present study quantifies the relationship between ultraviolet-B(UVB) and broadband solar radiation(G) at Qena,Egypt.Data from 10-year hourly integrated totals for both UVB and G on a horizontal surface were used to determine the best fit between the two radiation types.On the basis of the correlation of determination(r2),a second-order polynomial was determined to provide the best fit.For the purpose of developing an empirical model to estimate UVB,all of the cases of UVB and G from a nine-year study from 2001 to 2009 were introduced.Monthly and seasonal empirical models,as well as a general expression,were established for UVB as a function of G.The values of r2 ranged from 0.90 to 0.97.By using a new dataset of G,the estimated and the corresponding measured values of UVB were determined to be in good agreement whereby the values of r2 between the two ranged from 0.91 to 0.98.In addition,the significance and performance of the regression forms were evaluated with the aid of several statistical analysis procedures.The values of the index of modeling(d) and coefficient of modeling efficiency(ME) were close to one.Moreover,the values of RMSE,mean bias error(MBE),and mean absolute error(MAE) were lower than the experimental errors.On the basis of this analysis,it has been determined that the suggested regression forms can be used to estimate UVB when it difficult to obtain measurements or when measurements are available only for limited periods at the studied region.     

Satellite-based rainfall estimation and discharge measurement of Middle Indus River,Pakistan

The impacts of floods and droughts are intensified by climate change, lack of preparedness, and coordination. The average rainfall in study area is ranging from 200 to 400 mm per year. Rain gauge generally provides very accurate measurement of point rain rates and the amounts of rainfall but due to scarcity of the gauge locations provides very general information of the area on regional scale. Recognizing these practical limitations, it is essential to use remote sensing techniques for measuring the quantity of rainfall in the Middle Indus. In this research, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) estimation can be used as a proxy for the magnitude of rainfall estimates from classical methods (rain gauge), quantity, and its spatial distribution for Middle Indus river basin. In order to use TRMM satellite data for discharge measurement, its accuracy is determined by statistically comparing it with in situ gauged data on daily and monthly bases. The daily R ² value (0.42) is significantly lower than monthly R ² value (0.82), probably due to the time of summation of TRMM 3-hourly precipitation data into daily estimates. Daily TRMM data from 2003 to 2012 was used as input forcing in Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model along with other input parameters. The calibration and validation results of SWAT model give R ² = 0.72 and 0.73 and Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency = 0.69 and 0.65, respectively. Daily and monthly comparison graphs are generated on the basis of model discharge output and observed data.     

Precise Seismic Substructural Model of the Eocene Chorgali Limestone in the Turkwal Oil Field,Central Potwar,Pakistan

The precise seismic substructural interpretation of the Turkwal oil field in the Central Potwar region of district Chakwal of Pakistan has been carried out. The research work was confined to the large fore-thrust that serves as an anticlinal structural trap through ten 2D seismic lines. A precise seismic substructural model of the Eocene Chorgali Limestone with precise orientation of thrust and oblique slip faults shows the presence of a huge fracture, which made this deposit a good reservoir. The abrupt surface changes in dip azimuth for the Eocene Chorgali Limestone verifies the structural trends and also the presence of structural traps in the Turkwal field. The logs of three wells (Turkwal deep X-2, Turkwal-01 and Fimkassar-01) were analyzed for petrophysical studies, well synthetic results and generation of an Amplitude Versus Offset (AVO) model for the area. The AVO model of Turkwal deep X-2 shows abrupt changes in amplitude, which depicts the presence of hydrocarbon content. Well correlation technique was used to define the overall stratigraphic setting and the thickness of the reservoir formation in two wells, Turkwal-01 and Turkwal deep X-2. The Eocene Chorgali Limestone in Turkwal-01 is an upward thrusted anticlinal structure and because of the close position of both wells to the faulted anticlinal structure, its lesser thickness differs compared to Turkwal deep X-2. The overall results confirm that the Turkwal field is comparable to several similar thrust-bound oil-bearing structures in the Potwar basin.